Rhode Island Ratings

Here you can find my current ratings tables for the 2026 general election in Rhode Island. Any available writeups can be found in the post log. Members, including free members, will be able to access an archive of ratings changes with direct links to ratings posts once I have more than one ratings post.

Statewide, Federal, and Chamber Ratings

Office	Rating 09/15
U.S. Senator	Safe Democratic
U.S. House, Dist. 1	Safe Democratic
U.S. House, Dist. 2	Safe Democratic
Governor	Safe Democratic
Lieutenant Governor	Likely Democratic
Secretary of State	Uncontested Democratic
Attorney General	Safe Democratic
General Treasurer	Safe Democratic
State Senate supermajority	Uncontested Democratic
State House supermajority	Uncontested Democratic

State Senate Ratings

State Senate (38 seats, no tiebreaker)
Uncontested R	Lean R	Likely D	Safe D	Uncontested D
21 (Rogers)	17 (Paolino)	33 (Raptakis)	5 (Bell)	30 D-held seats
23 (de la Cruz)	34 (Morgan)		14 (Lawson)
			38 (Gu)

Map showing 30 Uncontested Democratic seats, 3 Safe Democratic (5, 14, 38), 1 Likely Democratic (33), 2 Lean Republican (17, 34), and 2 Uncontested Republican (21, 23). — My current Rhode Island State Senate ratings.

State House Ratings

State House (75 seats)
Uncontested R	Safe R	Lean R	Pure Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Uncontested D
6 R-held seats	41 (Chippendale)	53 (Santucci)	27 (Serpa)	15 (Paplauskas)	22 (Solomon)	5 (DeSimone)	7 D-held seats	50 D-held seats
			42 (Fascia)	39 (Cotter)		23 (Shekarchi)
			49 (Brien)			44 (Costantino)
						67 (Knight)

The map shows 50 Uncontested Democratic districts, seven Safe Democratic (7, 13, 18, 19, 33, 35, 37), four Likely Democratic (5, 23, 44, 67), one Lean Democratic (22), two Tilt Democratic (15-flip, 39), three Pure Tossup (27, 42, 49), one Lean Republican (42), one Safe Republican (41), and six Uncontested Republican (21, 28, 29, 40, 47, 48).

Local Ratings

I am working on more comprehensive local ratings. I currently have the following for mayors, town administrators, and partisan City Council majorities. I have colored nonpartisan mayoral races by the declared partisanship of the favored candidate.

Office	Rating 10/22
Mayor of Central Falls	Uncontested Rivera
Cranston City Council majority	Likely Democratic
Mayor of East Providence	Likely DaSilva
Mayor of Pawtucket	Uncontested Democratic
Mayor of Providence	Safe Democratic
Providence City Council majority	Uncontested Democratic
Warwick City Council majority	Uncontested Democratic
Mayor of Woonsocket	Pure Tossup
Bristol Town Administrator	Uncontested Independent
Mayor of Johnston	Uncontested Democratic
Lincoln Town Administrator	Safe Gould

I comment that it does not appear the partisanship of the Warwick City Council majority is an especially meaningful metric and I would like to come up with a better one.