Georgia Q3 Ratings Update

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Happy first day of early voting! In my first Georgia analysis post, I provide updated ratings for 2026 state and federal elections in Georgia and explain the changes. Later this month, you can look forward to detailed State Senate and State House writeups for over 30 districts that I either consider competitive or am watching although I do not consider them competitive this year, as well as the statewide races. I'll then have a ratings update after the October 20 fundraising reports (which are due October 27) and a final update around Election Day. I also will provide ratings in several county-level contests, likely as a one-off post after the Oct. 27 reporting deadline, which I hope to briefly write up but will post even if I don't have writeups prepared.

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Changes and ratings table

I have the following changes to my previously announced ratings. These changes account for the July 31 campaign finance reports as well as data I have recently calculated.

As a result, I have the following ratings for statewide elections and chambers:

I have the following ratings for state legislative seats:

Democrats need a blue wave to win the State House, where they currently hold 81 seats. 91 seats are needed for a majority. After flipping twelve seats (but losing two) in 2018 for a net of ten seats, they've failed to make comparable gains in subsequent cycles, with a net of two seats in 2020 (three Democratic pickups and one Republican pickup), one seat in 2022, and two seats in 2024, with an additional flip coming in a 2025 special election.¹

This year is, of course, looking rather like 2018 at the national level. I honestly don't think Ossoff is going to have meaningful coattails. However, if Bottoms wins the gubernatorial election by a comfortable margin, that makes the legislative candidates' jobs much easier. Right now, I don't think that's in the cards, which means Democrats need a well-funded coordinated campaign and well-funded individual candidates to compete. It's a bit tougher to assess whether that's the case; it wasn't in July, outside of the easiest targets, but the September 30 report traditionally gave a clearer picture. Unfortunately, thanks to changes made by the General Assembly last year – changes that I supported on net – there is no more September 30 report. We only get one more update on fundraising, which comes near the end of October.

I strongly considered shifting my chamber rating for the State House to Likely Republican, and I think it's right on the edge. But bearing in mind that it's possible neither party wins a majority, I still think Leans Republican is reasonable, meaning Republicans are modestly more likely to have a majority than to not have a majority when the results are tallied up.

I also rate District Attorney contests, as that is a state office, but all such contests this year are uncontested for the incumbent party. However, after Atlantic Circuit DA Billy Joe Nelson, Jr. was appointed to a judgeship, there is a so-called special primary to succeed him. Voters who request a “Republican” ballot will see a contest between Atlantic Circuit Chief ADA Laurie E. Baio and former McIntosh County Solicitor Richard “Richy” Braun. (There is no other primary on the ballot.) I hope to forecast this sometime after the pre-election fundraising report (due in late October), but these sorts of races – that is, primaries on the general election ballot – can be particularly difficult to predict. While Gov. Kemp has announced his intent to appoint Braun to the office, the ballot as of Sept. 28 does not mark either candidate as the incumbent, but it appears a notice will be posted in polling places informing voters of his incumbency.

Hey Eli, what gives? Isn't this a Democratic wave year? It does look like a good year for Democrats nationally, but I'm not convinced the tide will be strong enough to push several weak candidates over the top, especially as the gubernatorial contest remains close. The potential for a late surge by Democrats remains, which would change the calculus; this is a major reason my chamber rating is still Lean Republican. In particular, even though each Likely Republican seat is unlikely to flip when considered alone, there is a significant chance of the results being correlated. In other words, if a couple Likely Republican districts end up being close, there's a good chance the rest do, too.

Statewide & Chamber Ratings

Attorney General

Democratic nominee Tanya Miller, a former public defender and prosecutor who serves as chair of the House Democratic Caucus, is running a strong campaign. Republican nominee Brian Strickland chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and has a record of supporting some liberal reforms while still toeing the conservative line. I started this at Pure Tossup because I felt both parties had nominated strong candidates and because it's not difficult to imagine voters splitting tickets for a more important office like this one.

Now, there is reason to think Miller has an edge. The Democratic Party of Georgia certainly thinks the race is close, having recently committed at least six figures to television ads supporting Miller. She also notably outraised Strickland in the July 31 campaign reports, a feat few statewide Democrats managed. I also note that four years ago, ticket-splitting relative to the gubernatorial race actually boosted the Democratic nominee in this race. Just like the Republicans in all the Tilt Democratic races, Strickland could absolutely still win. But Miller seems to be in the driver's seat. Pure Tossup → Tilt Democratic.

State Legislature

Senate District 42

With incumbent Brian Strickland (R) running for Attorney General, the candidates here are Bret A. Dunn (R) and Eric W. Lee, Sr. (D). This district in Atlanta's southeastern suburbs and exurbs has moved left fairly quickly and tends to see a low rate of ticket-splitting relative to swing seats in Atlanta's northern suburbs. It is one of only three seats I have data for where Trump did worse in 2024 than Herschel Walker's 2022 runoff performance, with the other two such seats being deep red. And Lee, the Democrat, reported raising nearly $30K in the July 31 filing, not far behind Dunn's $42K, although Dunn has a meaningful head start on spending. Overall, the district remains to the right of the state by just enough that I think it's uphill, but Democrats have a fighting shot. Likely → Lean Republican.

House District 19

This district based around Hiram has a strong leftward trajectory. The incumbent Republican, Joseph Gullett, is somewhere between libertarian and hard-right, having first won election by primarying then-Rep. Paulette Rakestraw back in 2018. While this seat was already trending left, it was one of the few plausibly competitive seats Republicans weakened in the 2023 redistricting, slashing Herschel Walker's margin in the 2022 general election from 19.3% to 10.6%. The trendline isn't good for Republicans, either. I estimate it swung from Trump '20 +16.3% to Trump '24 +10.7%, a relative swing of almost 8%. 2024 saw a lot of trends stop or even reverse, but HD 19 kept on moving left. I'd expect it to be about 4% to the right of the state this year. If Bottoms wins the state narrowly, Jackson probably carries this district. But ticket-splitting is relatively rare here, so Bottoms wouldn't have to carry the seat by all that much to pull the Democrat over the line.

Democratic nominee Cynthia Starke-Jones, a former teacher, hasn't reported especially impressive fundraising, but neither has Gullett, although with over $100K on hand he doesn't necessarily need to raise all that much. Democrats appear to see this district as a key target, which is also significant. I'm moving the rating here in Starke-Jones's direction. Likely → Lean Republican.

House District 25

This district in southern Forsyth County and Alpharetta seemed like a ticking time bomb for Republicans for some time, having gone from Romney +53% to Trump '16 +28% to Trump '20 +12%. Consistent with the trendline, it voted for Kemp by 22% in 2018. In 2022, it voted for Walker in the runoff by 7.9%, falling a bit short of the trendline but still moving left, especially if compared to the 2020 Senate races. However, in the 2024 presidential election, HD 25 voted for Trump by 11.8%, a hair to the right of 2020, where he won by 11.5%.

A single year's deviation isn't enough to throw the trendline out the window, and I suspect HD 25 could still cause Republicans issues in the future. But there's good reason to think it won't happen this cycle. Even in the event Ossoff manages to carry the district, getting a Democrat elected to the State House here is another matter entirely. Ticket-splitting here is generally substantial. In 2022, Kemp ran about 16% ahead of Walker (by margin), and Raffensperger ran about 9% ahead of Burt Jones. These figures aren't extreme outliers among the competitive districts, but HD 25 is to the right of almost every other district I consider competitive. You can afford few ticket splitters in a district this red. What's more, Democrats aren't making a serious effort to contest the race, with repeat nominee Elaine Padgett raising under $400 so far. Padgett had $7.5K on hand on July 31, largely left over from her previous campaign, while incumbent R. Todd Jones had about $52K.

Democrats need everything to go right to flip this district, and I just don't see that happening. Likely → Safe Republican.

House District 40

This seat in western Douglas and southern Paulding counties has been on my watchlist. While Democrat Elisa Lassiter's haul in the July 31 filing wasn't particularly impressive, it was closer to Democrats in other reach districts than to Democrats in districts that are truly safely Republican. I have also newly calculated results for this district in the 2020 election, showing that it swung roughly 8% to the left from 2020 to 2024, even before adjusting for the state's swing, and that it barely swung at all from the 2022 Senate runoff to the 2024 presidential election. These are very bad trendlines for Republicans.

Democrats don't seem to see this as a top flip opportunity, and I agree – I think it needs another cycle or two, assuming it doesn't get redrawn again. But it could flip in a wave, and it's a more plausible wave flip than the other seats on my watchlist that I'm keeping at Safe. Safe → Likely Republican.

House District 99

This Gwinnett County seat based around Suwanee is one of four Harris-won seats Democrats are targeting in the Atlanta area, voting for her by 5.7%. This is slightly worse than Biden's 6.4% margin here, but it's still one of the bluest seats held by a Republican; the only seat bluer at the top of the ticket, HD 53, is significantly more prone to ticket-splitting.² Matt Reeves (R) won an open-seat race here in 2022 by 9.6%, running 3% ahead of Kemp's margin (and 17% ahead of Walker's), while in 2024 Reeves won by just 2.1%, about an 8% margin difference from the presidential race. This year's race is a rematch of the 2024 election against Michelle Kang (D), and there's good reason to think it'll flip. (I comment that I correctly had Reeves favored in 2024.)

Kang trailed Reeves in fundraising from May 1 to July 31: she raised $57,654.59 to his $68,995.00. She outspent him nearly 3-to-1, but a significant share of that spending was during her contested primary. Looking at a different metric – individual contributions from July 1, 2025 to July 31, 2026 – Kang leads modestly overall, per the tracker on the State Ethics Commission's website.

Finally, of the four seats I have as pure tossups, this is the bluest, and only one other tossup (HD 105) is even close to as blue. A Kang victory is hardly a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not, and as such, I'm moving this out of the Pure Tossup column to Tilt Democratic.

House District 147

This district is based in Warner Robins and contains parts of Houston and Peach counties. I expect the district to vote roughly 4% to the right of the state this year in statewide races. In the July 31 filing, incumbent Bethany Ballard (R) reported raising $42,490 and spending $26,207.09, while Renita A. Duncan (D) reported raising $1,088.42, loaning herself an additional $3,677.96, and spending $3,177.96. Ballard ended the period with over $100,000 on hand to roughly $2,500 for Duncan. This is an unusually large discrepancy in not only cash on hand, but active fundraising and spending. As a result, I am shifting my rating. This district's trajectory is very bad for Republicans, and it is much less prone to ticket-splitting than many of the Atlanta-area districts Democrats are hoping to flip, which is why I rated it Lean Republican in the first place. It may well shift back, but for now, Lean → Likely Republican.

House District 151

Uniquely among all general elections for state office in Georgia this year, HD 151 isn't just an R versus D contest. Incumbent Mike Cheokas (R) is quite right-wing and actually lost reelection once before, to a moderate Democrat in 2016. While Cheokas and Ethan Wolfe (D) are both white, independent Travis Lockhart is Black, and some counties in the district have a tradition of competitive local general elections with independent Black candidates. I think Lockhart likely hurts Wolfe more than he hurts Cheokas, but Cheokas has never been a strong performer electorally in the first place, and a potential runoff could galvanize Black voters here. Of course, a runoff could also easily benefit Cheokas, but there's enough uncertainty here to move the race out of the Likely column. Likely → Lean Republican.

In Conclusion

Thanks for reading! If you've read this far, I'd deeply appreciate a subscription, especially a paid subscription. If a recurring payment isn't in the budget, you can also send me a one-time tip and use the same subscription link to sign up at the free tier. I'll be back later this month with detailed writeups of all the competitive races.

If you think I made a factual or formatting error, including but not limited to my ratings tables not being consistent with each other, you can reach me at eli@elium2.com. If you'd like to argue your case for why I should change a rating, well, you can do that too, but I'd warn you that I'm tough to convince.

¹ As both the 2022 and 2024 cycles saw redistricting, I do not attempt to track an exact number of “pickups” for each party in those years.

² HD 154, long the bluest Republican-held seat, voted for Harris by just 3%.

Edits: None yet!